As President Donald Trump struggles to contain the fallout from the apparent murder of a Saudi columnist for the Washington Post, markets are turning their attention to what might happen if the U.S. punishes the Saudi government — and at a time when sanctions against Iran and its oil supply are scheduled to take effect in less than three weeks. Investors breathed a sigh of relief Monday when Saudi Energy Minister Khalid A. Al-Falih said the kingdom does not wish to impose an oil embargo on the West.

The sanctions against Iran have already done much to boost the price of gasoline at the pump, as crude oil prices have risen $25 a barrel in the last year, to about $80 on international markets, driven by Trump’s threat to reimpose sanctions on Iran, which are now set to take effect Nov. 4, according to CNBC.com.

The uncertainty about what Trump will do — and who has the leverage if the United States seeks to punish its longtime ally for any role it played in murdering a dissident who lived in America — is spawning a wide range of speculation about where crude may go as the situation plays out and what that means for energy stocks.

At one end are voices like Saudi media outlet Al Arabiya, which warns that the leading producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could still push crude to $200 if angered, and fringe figures, like former congressman and investing-newsletter maven Ron Paul, who is calling for $400 barrels of oil. Closer to the mainstream are people like CFRA Research energy analyst Stewart Glickman and Moody’s Analytics energy economist Chris Lafakis, who believe the market is discounting the idea that Trump will do much of anything to the Saudis.

Though Trump’s rhetoric has toughened as days go by, oil prices have given back the price gains they made immediately after Khashoggi disappeared in Turkey on Oct. 2.