The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator released by CFA Romania increased in March compared to the previous month by 0.5 points to 34.9 points, but compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator decreased by 12.7 points, informs a release.

According to the cited source, this evolution was due to the indicator’s anticipation component. Thus, the indicator of current conditions decreased by 0.4 points compared to the previous month to 47.1 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, Current conditions indicator decreased by 17.1 points).

The indicator of expectations increased by one point to 28.9 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator of anticipation decreased by 10.5 points).

With regard to the euro/ leu exchange rate, over 84% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (as compared to the present value). Thus, the average expectation for the 6-month horizon is 4.7946, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the expected rate is 4.8541.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2020 / April 2019) averaged 4.03%, according to Agerpres.

The communiqué states that it is worth noting the interest rate hikes for the medium-term maturities (5 years), over 80% of the participants anticipating this evolution, as well as the expectations for rising Romania’s risk premium, over 88% of the participants anticipating this evolution.

CFA Romania’s Macroeconomic Trust Indicator was launched by CFA Romania in May 2011.