The world’s nations are on track to produce more than twice as much coal, oil and gas as can be burned in 2030 while restricting rise in the global temperature to 1.5°C, analysis shows.

The report is the first to compare countries’ stated plans for fossil fuel extraction with the goals of the Paris climate agreement, which is to keep global heating well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. It exposes a huge gap, with fossil fuel production in 2030 heading for 50%-120% more than is consistent with 1.5-2°C, according to The Guardian.

Scientists have warned that even the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of heating will expose hundreds of millions of people to significantly higher risks of extreme heatwaves, drought, floods and poverty.

The report was produced by the UN Environment Programme and a coalition of research organisations. It complements an earlier UN analysis showing the current Paris agreement pledges to cut emissions would still lead to a catastrophic 3-°4C rise.