Volkswagen, the world’s largest carmaker, will significantly exceed EU fleet emission limits in 2021 regardless of its ambitious push into e-mobility, resulting in fines of around 4.5 billion euros, according to a report by PA Consulting. The consultancy forecasts that VW cars will emit 109.3 grams of CO2 per kilometre on average in 2021, greatly exceeding its EU target of 96.6 grams. VW’s production capacities for electric vehicles fall far short of what would be necessary to avoid fines, according to the consultancy, which estimates that fines for major carmakers will add up to 14.5 billion euros because all of them are set to miss their 2021 targets, according to Clean Energy Wire.

Due to strong sales of relatively high-emission SUVs, most carmakers have not managed to lower emissions over the past years. VW aims to sell 1 million electric cars world-wide by 2021 and 3 million by 2025, the consultancy writes. “Despite these ambitious plans and an incredibly detailed group strategy, Volkswagen is coming to electrification late and there is a substantial risk it will not achieve its own targets.” PA Consulting forecasts that BMW will have to pay around 750 million euros in fines, and Daimler 1 billion euro, adding that both stand good chances of meeting 2025 targets.