More than a third of CFA Romania analysts anticipate that the economic impact of coronavirus will be felt strongly by the first quarter (Q1) of 2021, and the anticipated budget deficit has an average value of 7.8%.

“In the April 2020 survey, four additional questions were added regarding: the economic impact of coronavirus: the majority of respondents (37.2%) anticipating that it will be felt strongly to the first quarter of 2021, the deficit of the state budget anticipated for 2020: the average value of expectations is 7.8%, the evolution, in real terms of GDP in 2020: the average value of expectations is -5.2%, the unemployment rate at the end of 2020: the value the average of the expectations is 8.3%,” it is shown in a release of the CFA Romania, according to Agerpres.

Regarding the euro/ leu exchange rate, over 90% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average value of anticipations for the 6-month horizon is 4.9180, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 4.9710.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (May 2021 / May 2020) is estimated at an average value of 3.37%.