The Romanian economy will register a severe reduction of activity in the second quarter of this year (Q2), of 14.4%, but the impact on the manufacturing industry in the mentioned period will be of about 18%, and the decline in the manufacture of textiles and clothing, leather and the automotive industry, of over 35%, according to the 2020 Convergence Program published by the Ministry of Public Finance (MFP).

“The forecast of the gross domestic product for 2020 took into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as support measures for the business environment, the labor market and consumers, but also interventions in the medical field. It is estimated a severe reduction in economic activity in second quarter (-14.4%), the quarterly profile highlighting a predominantly “V” -shaped evolution, but without returning to the situation from the winter scenario (absence of coronavirus), with a proper recovery in the fourth quarter. The scenario is based on a negative economic impact limited in time, of about 4 months (March-June), following a partial expansion in July-September, starting from the experience of China which shows signs of recovery after 4 months,” it is shown in the document quoted by Agerpres.

In this context, the Romanian economy is expected to register a cut of 1.9% annually, in real terms, being the result of negative contributions from both domestic demand (-1.6 percentage points) and net exports – but to a lesser extent (- 0.3 percentage points).