The average exchange rate of the leu for the end of January 2021 is of 4.9 lei/euro and in July next year it could be of 4.95 lei/euro, according to the latest survey of the CFA Romania Association, conducted on the 250 members, holders of the title of Chartered Financial Analyst.

Most CFA analysts believe the impact of the pandemic will last until next summer. The budget deficit for this year is estimated at 8.3%. Economic growth for 2020 could remain in negative territory, at -4.4% and unemployment could rise to 7%.

At the same time, changes in consumer behavior (both in terms of type of work and in terms of travel, etc.) will be long-lasting, with some analysts relying on the permanence of these changes. Most also say that the affected sectors will need a long time to recover. Few analysts confirm the “V” shape of the economic recovery, invoked by the authorities, according to Hotnews.ro.

Most respondents (over 69%) anticipate that the coronavirus crisis will be felt strongly by the second quarter of 2021.