Bogdan Tudorache

CFA Romania analysts anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months of up to 4.9777 lei/euro, while the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon, September 2021/September 2020 will register an average value of 2.94%. On Friday, the leu/euro exchange rate reached a new all-time high, with the NBR announcing an average of 4.87 lei/euro.

“Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, 90% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value), there being no opinion of appreciation of the leu. Thus the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is of 4.8886, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is of 4.9777 (given that individual expectations ranged from 4.8500 to 5.1500). The 12 months inflation (September 2021 / September 2020) registered an average value of 2.94%,” it is shown in a release of CFA Romania quoted by Agerpres.

According to the document, 60% of the participants anticipate the increase of the inflation rate in the next 12 months, and over 73% anticipate the increase of the risk premium (measured by CDSs) of Romania in the next 12 months. Over 66% consider that real estate prices in large cities are overvalued.

Regarding the anticipated state budget deficit for 2020, the average value of anticipations is of 8.3%. Regarding the evolution, in real terms of GDP in 2020, the average value of expectations is of -4.7%.

The average value of unemployment rate expectations at the end of 2020 is of 7%.