Romania’s estimated economic growth for this year is of between 2% and 2.5%, compared to 4% three weeks ago, before the start of the conflict in Ukraine, according to a new CFA survey, said Mihai Purcărea, member of the board of CFA Society Romania.

“Romania’s economic growth last year was quite good. We are talking about an increase of over 6%, and before this conflict started the expectations were quite positive for both 2022 and 2023. We were talking about quite important European funds, quite large investments in Romania, but I think things have changed quite a bit in the last two weeks. As compared to 4% expectations three weeks ago, before the start of the conflict, at the moment the economic growth expected by the respondents is between 2 and 2.5% (27% of respondents – no.) A rather significant decrease compared to expectations of only two weeks ago. We are talking about economic growth for the whole year and almost two percentage points difference compared to two weeks ago. Pretty much. Expectations are of a quite strong slowdown for the economy,” said Mihai Purcărea, at the 16th edition of the CFA Forecast Dinner event, according to Agerpres.

According to the survey, 23% of respondents expect economic growth of between 2.5% and 3%, and 22% below 2%. 13% of survey participants expect an increase of over 4%.

Asked about expectations for average inflation this year, 31% of respondents expect inflation above 10%, 27% for inflation between 9 and 10%, and 24% for an average inflation of 8-9%.

Regarding the exchange rate, most survey participants (38%) estimated a rate of 5 – 5.05 lei for one euro on December 31, 2022, and 24% – a rate of 4.95 – 5 lei for one euro.

The 3-month ROBOR index is expected to range between 4% and 5% on December 31, 2022 by 40% of respondents, between 5% and 6% by 31% of respondents and between 3% and 4% by 19% of respondents. survey participants.

Also, the interest rates on government securities with a maturity of 5 years are estimated at 5% – 6% on December 31, 2022 by 41% of respondents. 22% of the survey participants estimate values between 4% and 5%, and also 22% values between 6% and 7%.

Almost half of the survey participants (46%) expect the BET-XT index, of the 25 most liquid stocks on the stock exchange, to increase this year by 0% – 10%, and 30% estimate a decrease between 0% and 10%.