Energy and commodity markets are in shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, leading trading companies warned, warning that there could be problems with petrol and diesel supplies and an economic downturn in Europe if deliveries from Russia will continue to decline, Reuters reports.
Prices for gas, oil, metals and agricultural products have skyrocketed since the start of the war and have become so volatile that companies have been forced to reduce their trading volumes.
The general managers of the first four major energy trading companies, Vitol, Gunvor, Mercuria and Trafigura, pointed out that the gas market in particular has become dysfunctional due to “margin calls” that become unmanageable.
“The longer the war, the greater the chances of an economic downturn,” Vitol CEO Russell Hardy told the FT Commodities Global Summit.
Energy markets had little spare capacity before February 24, when Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine. They will now have trouble compensating for a potential loss of about two million barrels of oil per day from Russia, which is competing with Saudi Arabia for the title of the world’s largest oil exporter.
“Russia will lose, economically. Europe will not cope better with a refugee crisis and higher commodity prices,” said Mercuria CEO, Marco Dunand, adding that the Gulf countries will be the ones to benefit the most from the price increases and the fact that they will be intermediaries between the West and Russia.
The main concern for Europe is diesel. Europe imports almost half of its diesel needs from Russia and could face a supply crisis, trading companies say, and Trafigura adds that Latin America and Africa could be affected, according to Agerpres.