Romania has every chance to reach, this year, the border of 100 billion euros in terms of exports. Most will go to Germany, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, according to an analysis by Moneycorp Romania.

According to statistical data, announced by the INS, in the first five months of this year, the exports of Romanian companies totaled 38.5 billion euros, and the prospects show that, at the end of the first semester, we could reach 50 billion euros.

Most exports were machinery and transport equipment (47.1%) and other manufactured goods (29.6%).

72.7% of exports went to European Union countries, the value of intra-EU27 exchanges of goods being 28 billion euros.

In countries outside the European Union, Romania exported goods and services worth 10.537 billion euros, representing 72.7% of total exports.

“Even if exports moderated their evolution by 2.9% compared to the first five months of last year, the trend is positive and shows that the economy has adapted to the challenges generated by the new fiscal changes and especially inflation, the highest in EU this year,” says Cosmin Bucur, Managing Director of Moneycorp Romania.

“The evolution of Romanian exports will depend, mainly, on how our main commercial partners from Europe, Germany, Italy and France will overcome the problems generated by inflation, the restructuring of the economy in the context of the effects of the war in Ukraine and the reconfiguration of production and supply chains.

”The premises are still in the area of ​​uncertainty, but, considering the new economic policy that Brussels wants to put into practice for the relaunch of the European economy, the prospects are announced to be positive”, said Cosmin Bucur.

For Romania, say experts from Moneycorp, the next period will bring a whole series of opportunities in the conditions where, from the point of view of the price-quality ratio, Romanian products are in an attractive area, from construction materials to products agro-food, textiles and machinery.

”Dacia, Romania’s main exporter, comes with new car models, as does Ford, the software industry continues to show a positive evolution, and exports of chemical products are on the rise. The post-pandemic economic restructuring is beginning to show its positive effects, most of the manufacturing companies in Romania optimizing their costs and launching new ranges of products and services, adapted to the new economic reality,” said the Moneycorp manager.

Made in Romania products

Romania’s main export products were, in the last year, machines and electrical devices, means of transport, furniture, construction materials and other products, agri-food products, chemical products and plastics, metallurgical products, textiles, clothing, leather, footwear and mineral products.

In 2023, Romania exported 93 billion euros (+1.3% compared to the previous year), but the prospects for 2024, also stimulated by the effects of inflation, indicate reaching the 100 billion euro milestone.

The main destinations of Romanian exports were Germany (21.3%), Italy (10.7%), France (6.8%), Hungary (6.6%), Bulgaria (4.1%), Poland (3 .7%), Turkey (3.5%), Czech Republic (3.3%), Netherlands (2.9%) and Great Britain (2.9%).

”After last year the deficit of the trade balance improved by 5.1 billion compared to 2022 (-15.1%), to 28.9 billion euros, we hope that the trend will be maintained this year as well. After the first five months, we unfortunately witness an increase in the trade balance deficit (FOB/CIF) to 12.288 billion euros, higher by 1.230 billion euros (+11.1%) compared to the similar period in 2024. There are but chances are that, against the background of a significant increase in exports of agricultural products and machinery, in the autumn, the data on the deficit will improve,” Moneycorp’s analysis shows.

According to the Moneycorp analysis, the evolution of Romanian exports will depend, to a significant extent, on the way in which the authorities will support the relaunch of the economy.

“Romania has a very high potential regarding the relocation of production activities, with a focus on exports. The efforts to expand the highways and the railway network, together with the increasing investments in logistics parks, make Romania an interesting destination for investors.

”Direct investments by non-residents in Romania amounted to 3.230 billion euros, in the first four months of this year, up by 34.14% compared to 2.408 billion euros, in the similar period of 2023, and the trend is still positive, in despite the challenges generated by inflation and especially the unstable fiscal framework,” the analysis shows.

According to a Frames study, Romania has every chance of becoming a true regional hub in the field of logistics, production and cross-border services, with the expected investments for the coming years exceeding 10 billion euros.

The investment key is the development of the infrastructure of industrial parks, with integrated offers of warehouses, production spaces, services, transport and connectivity. The most attractive investment areas are Constanța Port, Bucharest/Ilfov and the Center region.

“The fact that we have an economy in surplus, with a stable EUR/RON exchange rate, that we do not have major turbulence on the political scene and that, from the point of view of security, we have the NATO umbrella, all these elements represent a guarantee that Romania is open for business,” says Cosmin Bucur.

In a Europe where all countries will compete to attract investments, Romania, with a low operating cost compared to the countries in the region, has the chance to represent an important destination for investors, but it needs to do more to attract foreign capital .

The development of production stimulation programs, with EU funds or from the state budget, is likely to provide a significant boost to the economy, especially in the IT&C sector, in the context of the fourth industrial revolution, Industry 4.0, in which Romania will have to join.

Digitization, robotization and new technologies represent an area that must become strategic for Romania, an area with excellent export potential.

“There is a need for a sustained effort by the business environment and the state towards an economic reconstruction on a sustainable and predictable basis, which offers an alternative to imports and a competitive offer to exports,” said Cosmin Bucur, Managing Director of Moneycorp Romania.

According to the experts, in a volatile currency environment and the economic pressures generated by the crisis, the business environment must increasingly take into account the use of hedging products and strategies.

“In times of crisis and uncertainty, such as the period we are going through now, there is an increase in the volatility of the exchange rate for most currency pairs. This volatility has direct effects on the trading margin. I think that any company wants a decrease in volatility and an increase in predictability, at least in the short and medium term,” adds Sebastian Bacioiu, Head of Dealing of Moneycorp Romania.

According to him, the most basic and effective hedging product (covering currency risk) is forward trading. It involves fixing the exchange rate at which a company can buy or sell a currency at a future time.

The difference in the level of interest, between the euro/dollar/pound sterling on the one hand and the leu on the other, makes a forward very attractive especially for exporters (companies that sell foreign exchange and buy lei) due to a level of the exchange rate higher than the one offered ‘on sight’ at the time of the transaction. This reduces the cost associated with such a transaction and remains a pure currency risk hedging product.

Present in Romania since 2016, Moneycorp is the largest payment institution in Europe. In 2022, the company traded over 86 billion euros globally and made payments to over 190 countries. In Romania, Moneycorp works with over 1,000 corporate companies and SMEs, from various fields such as IT&C, Insurance, Industrial Equipment, FMGC or Medical.