Primary electricity production will register an average annual growth rate of 2.7%, in the period 2024-2027, according to the latest Energy Balance Forecast, published by the National Strategy and Forecasting Commission (CNSP).
According to the source cited by Agerpres, the production of hydroelectric energy for the year 2024 will have an estimated value of 1.469 million toe, down 8.3% compared to 2023, in unfavorable climatic conditions, after which it will return to an increase of over 4 % in 2025 under normal rainfall conditions.
The production of wind electricity will increase this year, according to estimates, to 684,000 toe, and for the period 2025-2027, it will have a forecast advance of 3.5%, as an average annual rate, and that of photovoltaic electricity will total, in 2024, 228,000 toe, and for the period 2025-2027 it will have a forecasted increase of 11.8% annual average.
In total, the production of hydroelectric, wind and photovoltaic energy will be 2.38 million toe in 2024 (minus 1.4%), in 2025 to 2.497 million toe (plus 4.9%), in 2026 to 2.578 million toe ( plus 3.2%) and in 2027 of 2.687 million toe (plus 4.2%).
Nuclear-electric energy production was considered constant for the 2024-2027 interval, with a multi-year value forecast at 968,000 toe.
Regarding the import of electricity, for the year 2024 an increase of 11.7% is anticipated, simultaneously with an increase in exports of 4.4%, tempering after 4 years of double-digit increases, Romania continuing to be and in 2024 net exporter of energy.
“In the scenario, it was required that the net export of electricity remain positive over the forecast interval, but with a tendency to narrow the gap, given that external demand may decrease”, the Forecast Note states.
Electricity imports are estimated at 828,000 toe in 2024 (plus 11.7%), at 780,000 toe in 2025 (minus 5.8%), 700,000 toe in 2026 (minus 10.3%) and 610,000 toe in 2027 (minus 12.9%).
The production of electricity obtained in thermal power plants is forecast to decrease, to 1.477 million toe, and for the period 2024-2027 it is estimated to decrease with an average annual rate of 6.9%. The electrical energy obtained in thermal power plants is used to balance the domestic consumption requirement, in the current conditions in which it is desired to reduce the dependence on the import of natural gas.
Domestic electricity consumption (total uses, less export) is expected to decrease in 2024 as well, but with a much lower dynamic (of -0.6% compared to -5.8% in 2023), following as in the 2025-2027 interval to have an average annual growth rate of 0.8%. This increase is mainly driven by electricity consumption in industry, services and even the residential sector, states CNSP.