Romania can benefit, until 2035, from a minimum of 3 GW and a maximum of 7 GW of offshore wind energy, according to a new study carried out by the World Bank with European funds, following a contract signed by the European Commission and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and with the help of BVG Associates, CMS and ISPE.

”Romania already has 3 GW of installed onshore wind capacity and a sufficiently vigorous offshore wind resource that could produce more energy than Romania will ever need. This report highlights the potential for up to 7 GW of OSW capacity, located at least 50 km from shore and mostly in relatively shallow water, that could be constructed from the early 2030s, using Romania’s well-equipped port facilities, steel-based supply chain and other local workers,” the report shows.

Operational OSW capacity in the EU totaled about 31 GW at the end of 2022. The European Commission’s 2020 EU Strategy to harness the potential of offshore renewable energy for a climate neutral future offshore wind set EU-wide targets of at least 60 GW of OSW capacity by the end of 2030 and 300 GW by the end of 2050, with the Black Sea designated as one of five key sea basins for development of OSW.

The opportunity and potential impact of offshore wind in Romania

OSW potentially offers Romania a local, competitively priced, large scale and clean source of electricity and long-term jobs. To take full benefit of the resources that Romania has, requires:

• Clarity on energy strategy and policy, including targets for OSW deployment up to 2035.
• Establishing OSW energy areas in the most suitable locations from a technical, commercial, environmental and social standpoint.
• Development of a new OSW law defining frameworks for exploration licensing, leasing, permitting and offtake.
• Significant and targeted upgrades of the transmission network, both to transfer energy from OSW projects and potentially to support the production, storage and use of green hydrogen; and
• Support to key areas of the Romania supply chain, to enable export as well as manufacture for domestic projects. The Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) for the high growth scenario to 2035 reach about €19 billion.

The low and high growth scenarios

Romania has a medium-speed wind resource that the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance program (ESMAP) characterizes as having a technical potential of 76 GW (22 GW using foundations fixed to the sea bed and 54 GW using floating foundations).

• Low growth, which assumes development of OSW in line with existing government intent regarding renewables, where 3 GW OSW supplies 16% of Romania’ electricity needs by 2036 .
• High growth, which assumes 7 GW OSW installed, where OSW supplies 37% of Romania’s electricity needs by 2036.

In the high growth scenario, new capacity is installed each year, reaching an average installation rate of 1.5 GW per year by 2035.

The key difference is that in the high growth scenario, 2.3 times the installed capacity by the end of 2035, compared to the low growth scenario, results in more cost reduction, 3.7 times as many local full-time equivalent (FTE) job years and 3.7 times local gross value added (GVA) up to 2035.

Local jobs and local gross value added:

• The larger local market, with good visibility, enables more local supply chain investment and optimization, and also some export to the regional and global market.
• This creates 1.5 times as many local FTE job years per MW installed.
• With 2.3 times as many MW installed up to 2035, this means 3.7 times as many FTE job years are created overall and about the same increase in local GVA.

The first projects are assumed to be installed in 2029, however, ”The scenarios show capacity installed as early as feasible at the time of defining the scenarios. Based on experience in other markets, it is more likely that capacity will be installed 2 or 3 years later. Timing will depend both on the length of the project development processes but also on the time to implement primary and secondary legislation”, teh study reveals.

The position of the Ministry of Energy

“A new day with good news from the Ministry of Energy. Today, the World Bank’s report on the potential of wind energy in the Black Sea for Romania was publicly launched, after a two-year effort, fully supported by non-reimbursable funds made available by the European Commission (DG Reform). World-class experts analyzed for the first time the Romanian exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea, and the data are fascinating: total potential of 76GW — 22GW on fixed platform and 54GW floating; wind speed of 7.5-8 m/s; the possibility to develop projects between 3GW and 7GW by 2035”, the ME statement said.

“We are talking about investments between 9 and 19 billion euros, which will provide between 16 and 37% of Romania’s electricity needs. Between 21,000 and 77,000 well-paid jobs will be created, and the ports of Constanța, Midia and Mangalia will be able to become hubs for the production and supply of equipment for offshore wind power plants in the entire region”, says Minister Sebastian Burduja.

“This year we managed to adopt the offshore wind energy law, Romania becoming the first country in the Black Sea basin with a clear and attractive legal framework for investors. We are several steps ahead of all the other states in the region and we have to keep up the pace. If we continue to be the first, we have the opportunity to become a hub for the entire region and play our leading role in ensuring energy security and independence.

Offshore wind energy is green, competitively priced and with large multiplier effects in the local economy. Next year, with continued support from the World Bank, the European Commission and the US State Department, we will complete the study on the optimal sites for future wind farms. We estimate commissioning of the first capacities by 2032 and the ambitious target is 7GW by 2035.

Equally important is the East-West Direct Current (HVDC) interconnector project, for which we are already working on the feasibility study. It will be vital to evacuate the energy produced in the offshore wind power plants in the Black Sea, but also in the future reactors 3 and 4 at Cernavodă, which we will also complete in the 2031-2032 time horizon.

I am confident that we will be the first country to benefit from Black Sea wind energy, with the support of our strategic partners, to whom I thank for all their support so far. We continue, with vision and ambition, with speed and perseverance, with energy for a new Romania,” added the relevant minister.