Roxana Caliminte, Expert independent în energie
As winter 2024-2025 approaches, Romania faces critical questions about its energy readiness. The EU’s REPowerEU strategy, aiming to phase out Russian gas by 2027, intensifies the pressure to balance immediate needs with long-term sustainability. How well is Romania positioned to navigate the dual challenge of rising demand and a rapidly evolving energy landscape?
Winter demand forecast
This winter is expected to bring peak electricity demand of around 9,000 MW, higher than last year, due to colder temperatures and increased industrial activity. Natural gas consumption is projected at 43 million cubic meters per day. Romania’s energy planners are focused on balancing the electricity and gas grids while ensuring stable supply across all regions. According to a Transelectrica forecast, the highest imports may be required in December, with the system potentially facing a deficit of 636 GWh of electricity. This would necessitate average imports of 855 MW. The critical question remains – Can Romania depend on stable energy imports during peak demand, given the fluctuating European energy markets?
Diversification: A key to energy security
Romania faces significant risks from geopolitical tensions, global supply chain disruptions, and extreme weather events. Diversifying energy sources and upgrading infrastructure are central to Romania’s strategy for reducing its reliance on external suppliers. Increasing domestic production and storage capacity forms the core of this effort.
Boosting Domestic Energy Production
While Romania is investing heavily in domestic production — especially in natural gas and renewables — current levels are insufficient to fully meet national demand. The Neptune Deep gas field is expected to add up to 100 bcm of gas, increasing energy independence and positioning Romania as the largest gas producer in the EU. Import dependency of natural gas is amongst the lowest in Europe: in 2022, only 18.1% of natural gas consumed in Romania was imported, thanks to abundant domestic production.
Last year, 50% of the electricity delivered to the grid came from renewable sources, with wind energy accounting for the largest share at 3.1 GW of installed capacity. Electricity is mostly produced in Romania: in 2022, only 2.6% was imported. “Wind energy is a win-win for Romania. It’s cheap, improves energy security, and integrates easily with other technologies,” said Giles Dickson, CEO of WindEurope. Investments in renewables are vital in reducing import dependency and building a more resilient energy system. From 2021 to 2023, electricity interconnection capacity increased from 7.6% to 18.3% of production capacity, above the European target of 15% by 2030.
Energy reserves and storage
A critical pillar of Romania’s winter preparedness is its strategic management of gas reserves. Domestic gas production meets most of the annual demand, with storage playing a vital role in providing flexibility during winter. Romania’s Minister of Energy, Sebastian Burduja, confirmed that the country has already surpassed the EU’s 90% storage target, with over 97% of gas storage filled ahead of the November 1 deadline.
This achievement not only strengthens Romania’s internal supply security but also enhances its ability to support neighboring countries in times of energy crises. “Romania’s efforts to fill its reserves have solidified its role as a key contributor to Europe’s energy security,” commented Ms. Boyana Achovski, Secretary General with Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Infrastructure readiness
Romania’s energy infrastructure has undergone significant modernization to increase capacity and resilience. The country plans investments of $1.41 billion in the development of its electric power transmission network between 2022 and 2031. This ensures the system can manage higher winter loads while integrating 7,000 MW of renewable energy sources by 2030. But has there been enough progress made so far?. At the same time, Transgaz, with over 15,000 km of gas pipelines, ranks among the largest networks in Europe. “With its extensive network and strategic investments, Transgaz is fully prepared to ensure Romania’s energy supply this winter”, confirmed Ion Sterian, General Director of Transgaz.
Managing the energy system
Romania’s regulatory body, ANRE, plays a critical role in maintaining market stability and consumer protection. “Our focus is on ensuring that gas reserves are managed efficiently, market stability is maintained, and consumers are protected from volatility. By coordinating closely with national and regional partners, we are prepared to address any challenges that may arise, ensuring a reliable energy supply for all Romanians”, stated George Niculescu, ANRE President.
Regional energy cooperation and partnerships
Romania contributes to regional initiatives like the Central and South-Eastern Europe Energy Connectivity initiative, which enhances energy security across Southeast Europe. Key to these efforts is the Vertical Corridor, which facilitates the north-south flow of gas between Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania, further diversifying supply routes and reinforcing regional energy resilience. Participation in the Trans-Balkan Pipeline and potential collaborations with Greece and Serbia further bolster Romania’s access to alternative gas sources, reinforcing both national and regional energy resilience.
Romania’s strategic location in Southeast Europe makes it a key player in regional energy cooperation. The BRUA pipeline and the upcoming Alexandroupolis LNG terminal in Greece are central to Romania’s diversification strategy, enhancing access to global markets.
“The Alexandroupolis LNG terminal represents a significant leap forward in enhancing the energy security of Romania and the broader Southeast and Central European region. By diversifying our gas supply sources and reducing dependence on traditional suppliers, this project not only strengthens Romania’s resilience against supply disruptions but also positions the country as a key energy hub in the region”, said Mr. Kostis Sifnaios, Managing Director of Gastrade.
These initiatives, along with potential LNG imports via Greece’s Revithoussa and Croatia’s Krk terminals, further solidify Romania’s energy security.
EU solidarity mechanisms
Romania actively engages in the EU’s energy solidarity mechanisms, including gas-sharing agreements and coordinated responses to supply disruptions. Its strengthened interconnections allow for the flow of up to 26.5 million cubic meters of natural gas daily, covering nearly half of peak demand. Through the European Commission’s Gas Coordination Group, Romania aligns its policies with EU-wide strategies, boosting its resilience against disruptions. Additionally, Romania’s contingency plans — backed by demand response strategies, backup generation, and Transgaz’s infrastructure — enable the production of 23 million cubic meters of gas daily, with the capacity to withdraw 29 million cubic meters from storage. If needed, Romania can import gas from Turkey, Greece, and Azerbaijan.
Energy efficiency and innovation
The energy not used is energy saved. Romania’s energy efficiency strategy aims to reduce consumption by 20% by 2030. Investments in smart grids and battery storage systems are central to increasing system flexibility and resilience. These batteries play a crucial role in storing excess renewable energy, ensuring grid stability even during fluctuating demand. Romania has allocated 14 billion euros to green energy production, energy infrastructure upgrades, and expanding electricity storage capacity to over 1 GW in the next two years. These funds also aim to modernize gas and cogeneration plants, support industrial efficiency, and promote green hydrogen production.
A test in balancing security and sustainability
Romania has made significant strides in preparing for winter 2024-2025 through infrastructure modernization, strategic gas storage, and enhanced regional cooperation. However, challenges remain, particularly in securing stable energy imports and balancing immediate energy needs with long-term sustainability goals. The winter ahead will serve as a crucial test for Romania’s ability to ensure both energy security and a sustainable future.
Roxana Caliminte served as the Deputy Secretary General of Gas Infrastructure Europe from 2017 to 2024. Prior to this, she worked with Romania’s gas transmission operator, Transgaz, where she was responsible for the company’s engagement with EU institutions and governmental bodies. Additionally, she has experience working in the Romanian Parliament as an advisor on international relations and economic affairs. Roxana is a visiting lecturer at the Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest, Romania. Consultancy Intelligence Publishing recognised Roxana as one of the Top 30 Female Energy Market Analysts globally.
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The interview firstly appeared in the October 2024 issue of Energynomics Magazine.
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