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Europe: Cold weather pushes up gas prices

3 December 2024
Uncategorized
energynomics

European natural gas benchmarks rose for a second straight session on Monday, with forecasts pointing to cooler temperatures in many parts of the continent, Bloomberg reported.

At the TTF gas hub in Amsterdam, where European benchmark prices are set, natural gas futures rose 2.3% to 48.90 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) on Monday, according to Agerpres.

After a period of mild weather, cooler temperatures are expected to return to Western Europe next week, then quickly spread to the continent, according to data from Maxar Technologies. These developments are expected to increase demand for heat, putting pressure on gas prices. Higher oil prices are also weighing on natural gas futures as traders monitor risks to global energy supplies amid conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Fuel stocks in Europe are falling faster than usual, potentially complicating efforts to replenish stocks next year. With less than a month before the expiration of a gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, Europe risks losing some of its gas supplies during the peak of the cold season.

For now, Russian gas exports via Ukraine are continuing as usual, although they fell slightly on Monday. Markets have reacted to the developments, according to consultancy Auxilione.

Europe’s gas storage facilities are currently only 85% full, down from 95% at the same time last year, and the European Union has decided to revise its gas stock target upwards by February to ensure it is adequately prepared for 2025.

“There is a risk that natural gas futures prices will rise as cold weather is already reducing stocks,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Patricio Alvarez and Joao Martins said on Monday. They expect Europe’s gas storage facilities to be 39% full by the end of the season, barring extreme cold temperatures, complicating next summer’s filling campaign and intensifying competition with Asia for the fuel.

 

 

 

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