Stock market developments show trends of gas price increases, which will translate into price increases for the final consumer, says Dumitru Chisăliță, in an analysis of the Intelligent Energy Association. Thus, compared to the price paid now, the consumer will pay up to 0.5% higher prices until March 31, 2025 and up to 26% higher after April 1, 2025, claims the president of AEI.
In the last two weeks, the price of natural gas, against the background of the evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, increased from 32.637 euros/MWh to 40.396 euros/MWh on the Dutch stock exchange – an increase of 23.7% and from 33.727 euros/MWh to 41.306 euro/MWh on the Vienna stock exchange – an increase of 22.4%. On the Romanian Commodity Exchange (BRM), an increase of 24% was marked, in parallel, from 29.17 (145 lei/MWh) euro/MWh to 36.21 (180.024 lei/MWh) euro/MWh.
“Quotations for the fourth quarter are 42 euros/MWh on the Dutch gas exchange and 200 lei/MWh (40.24 euros/MWh) on the BRM. At the same time, there are analysts who say that the price of gas in the winter will reach again on the Dutch stock market, the price of the winter 2023-2024, respectively 50-55 euros/MWh. Given that the price of gas on the Romanian market follows the evolution of the price on the Dutch stock exchange, a winter trading price in Romania is likely to be at a level of 250 – 275 lei/MWh.
“Thus, considering that the natural gas transmission tariff is around 18 lei/MWh, the distribution tariff for natural gas for Bucharest is 60.92 lei/MWh, and 15-20% of the gas consumed in a year are from storage warehouses, which have approximately 10% higher costs, we estimate that the price of natural gas supplied to the final consumer in winter will be approximately 331.91 – 391.41 lei/MWh, of which the domestic consumer will actually pay the price capped at 310 lei/MWh including VAT, with the state compensating the difference of 21.91 – 81.41 lei/MWh to the supplier,” says the author of the study.
“Considering that on the June 2024 bill, the price paid by household consumers in Bucharest was about 309 lei/MWh including VAT, we estimate a price increase of about 7.5% – 26.7%, of which the state will offset 7% – 26.2%. The effective price increase being 0.5%. The question is where will the state get approx. 100 – 300 million euros to compensate these bills?
But, on April 1, 2025, the market will be liberalized, so that starting from this date, in the absence of appropriate measures to prepare for the liberalization of the gas market, these potential increases will be paid directly by consumers,” adds Dumitru Chisăliță.
