The first round of the presidential election has produced unexpected results. With 99.91% of the minutes from the polling stations processed, independent candidate Călin Georgescu and USR president Elena Lasconi are the favourites to enter the second round, scheduled for 8 December. The candidates of the main parliamentary parties, Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) and Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), obtained disappointing results. Both parties have to reposition themselves ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 1 December.
Two surprises and several confirmations
Most opinion polls put Marcel Ciolacu in first position, with a considerable lead over the next candidates, George Simion (AUR), Elena Lasconi (USR) and Nicolae Ciucă (PNL). It was a vote of preference rather than a useful vote, which considerably fragmented voters’ choices and was a protest vote against the leaders of the political scene. Both Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciucă scored considerably lower than the support expressed this year in the local elections for the parties they lead and which are in government.
The biggest surprise, because it was not anticipated by the opinion polls, is the score of over 22% obtained by Călin Georgescu, with a sovereignist, conservative and illiberal platform, but without the support of a political party. The second big surprise is the modest score obtained by Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, leader of the PSD-PNL coalition, who dominated the Romanian Parliament with a firm majority.
The vote in the first round of the presidential elections confirms the advance of the sovereignist option among Romanian voters, estimated at around 30-35% of the electorate. The vote also confirms the lack of traction of PNL leader Nicolae Ciucă, voted by only 8.8% of those who expressed an option. The result is considerably below the political vote in favour of the PNL, which won more than 29% of the popular vote this summer. Also among the confirmations is the result obtained by George Simion (AUR), around 14%, in line with most of the pre-vote estimates.
With a much wider potential electoral base, George Simion seems to have lost support to a challenger with a more credible professional profile. 62-year-old Călin Georgescu has a degree in agronomy and a PhD in pedology (soil studies). He was director of the National Centre for Sustainable Development, then president of the European Research Centre of the Club of Rome, director in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, secretary-general in the Ministry of the Environment and rapporteur in a UN office. Călin Georgescu was nominated 5 times to lead the Government.
At the same time, Călin Georgescu has a criminal record opened in 2022, following a statement in which he praised former legionary leaders Corneliu Zelea Codreanu and Ion Antonescu. In an interview in 2021, he described NATO’s missile defence shield at Deveselu as a “disgrace to diplomacy” and said the alliance would not protect any of its members if they were attacked by Russia. Moreover, “Russian wisdom is Romania’s chance”, Călin Georgescu said in a public speech in April 2021.
PNL prepares leadership change
Immediately after the end of the 24 November vote, Ilie Bolojan, president of the Bihor County Council and the politician proposed prime minister by three presidential candidates, asked Nicolae Ciucă to take responsibility for his poor score in the presidential elections and suggested that he should resign. Bolojan also stressed that the PNL must understand that it has to be “a modernising factor”. “Whatever they say, the vote that Romanians have given today is below the potential of the PNL,” said Ilie Bolojan. “The PNL has two possibilities: to understand this lesson and take certain decisions and to understand that the party must be a modernising factor for Romania and represent its electorate or, if it continues in this formula, the results will be the same. The night is a good councelor and I am confident that the right decisions will be taken in the days to come”, added the president of Bihor CJ.
Several PNL leaders have already taken this line. Sebastian Burduja, Minister of Energy, and the Mayor of Sector 1, George Tuță, have called for the resignation of the leadership of the National Liberal Party for the failure of the presidential elections. “The first and most important conclusion after this difficult day: the current leadership of the PNL has completely missed the target it set itself. It had all it wanted, time and resources at its disposal. It came on the back of a significant vote for the Liberal primaries. Yet it has delivered only a dismal failure. We’ll analyse it together in the cold, I’m sure – but everything I saw (strategy, messaging, direction) was wrong,” Sebastian Burduja wrote on Facebook.
Elena Lasconi gives a new impetus to USR
Elena Lasconi became USR president and candidate after the party’s former leader, Cătălin Drulă, resigned due to the poor results in the European Parliament and local elections. The move was inspired by Lasconi’s much better score in the first round of the presidential elections, where she also managed to win the public support of several “right-wing” political groups, including Forța Dreptei (Ludovic Orban) and REPER (Dacian Ciolos), and the support of prominent opinion leaders such as former president Traian Basescu and the independent mayor of the capital Nicușor Dan.
If she manages to get into the second round of the presidential elections, Elena Lasconi could become an important driving force for the USR in the parliamentary elections on 1 December.
What will PSD do?
It is still unclear whether and how the PSD can reposition itself if the president and his candidate fail to make it to the second round. Marcel Ciolacu is less likely to be ousted, at least in the very short term, before the parliamentary elections. Likewise, it is difficult to predict the public expression of support for Elena Lasconi in a possible competition with Călin Georgescu in the decisive round of the presidential elections.
Unlike in the PNL, where there are ideologically distinct factions from the line adopted by the party in recent years, in the Social Democratic Party it is more difficult to identify an alternative to Marcel Ciolacu. The repositioning of the party might take longer because it would require, as in the PNL, but to a greater extent, changes in practices and approaches rather than doctrinal realignments and strategic choices.
Protest vote and sovereignism
In line with political developments in Europe and the United States, the sovereignist option is also gaining ground in Romania. It brings together heterogeneous groups and voters dissatisfied with traditional options, who want Romanians to have more influence in domestic decisions and greater independence from decision-making centres outside the country, mainly the European Union.
At the same time, political figures such as George Simion or Diana Șoșoaca, as well as Călin Georgescu, less visible in the traditional media, have expressed on numerous occasions opinions considered nostalgically pro-communist, pro-Russian, pro-extreme right, and even anti-Semitic and xenophobic.
How will such choices be reflected in concrete decisions and policies in the coming years, given that the majority of Romanians support EU (83%) and NATO (88%) membership? Both organisations are crucial for Romania’s economic and state security and anchors of stability and development for the country in recent decades.
