The exchange rate will reach 4.99 lei/euro at the end of 2021, with the breaking of the symbolic level of 5 lei/euro taking place during next spring, while the USD-RON exchange rate could reach 4.20 lei/USD in December, and 4.30 during next March, is shown in an analysis by Claudiu Cazacu, Strategic Consulting with XTB Romania.

In addition, after an economic advance of 5.7% in 2021, estimates point to a jump of 5.1% in 2022 and a 4.5% advance in 2023, according to Agerpres.

“The stability of the exchange rate has meant a remarkable success of the challenging period of the last year and a half. As for the future, there are some question marks. Will we have the pressure of a growing current account deficit, or at least at high levels? It seems so. We estimate the current account deficit at 5% this year and 5.3% the next. Last year, at just under 11 billion euros, it was deepened (by 5.5% compared to 2019) through a lower imports decrease, as compared to exports. The difference in pace is in fact a worrying trend, and in the estimate for next year, exports are growing at a slower pace than imports (a difference of 2 percentage points), and this is a problem that must be taken seriously, especially in the long run,” said Claudiu Cazacu.

On the other hand, the analysis shows that consistent inflows of accelerated European funds are expected, as resources from the PNRR would also be available, increasing from almost 4 billion euro in 2021 to 6.3 billion euro in 2022 and 7, 9 billion in 2023.

“We also expect some revival of remittances from those working abroad. These will calm the upward trend of the euro-leu, slowing the rate of depreciation of the leu. In the long run it will be essential to use as efficiently as possible the resources made available in an extraordinary conjuncture, because otherwise we would prepare the ground, in fact, for even bigger imbalances,” stresses Claudiu Cazacu.