Almost half of CFA Romania’s analysts (48%) anticipate that the economic impact of coronavirus will be strongly felt by the fourth quarter (Q4) of this year, and the anticipated budget deficit has an average value of 6.5%, according to the CFA Romania.

“In the survey for March 2020, two additional questions were added, regarding: the economic impact of coronavirus – most of the respondents (48%) anticipating that it will be strongly felt by the fourth quarter of the year; the anticipated state budget for 2020: the average value of the anticipations is 6.5%”, according to a statement of the Association quoted by Agerpres.

Regarding the EUR/ RON exchange rate, approximately 95% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the present value). Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is of 4.9370 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated rate is of 4.9954.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2021/ April 2020) registered an average value of 3.79%. “It is worth noting the anticipations for the increase of the premium risk of Romania, about 87% of the participants foreseeing an increase in the price of CDS with the maturity of 5 years. Also, over 63% of the participants consider the real estate prices in the big cities as overvalued,” states the release.