More than half of CFA Romania’s analysts estimate that the impact of the coronavirus will be felt strongly by the first quarter (Q1) of next year and the anticipated budget deficit for this year is of 8.4%, according to a statement of the organization.

The average value of expectations indicates a decline in gross domestic product of 4.4% for 2020 and an unemployment rate of 7.3%.

“Since April of this year, four additional questions have been added to the survey, and the results for June 2020 reveal: the economic impact of coronavirus – most respondents (53.3%) anticipate that it will be felt strongly by the first quarter of 2021, the deficit of the state budget anticipated for 2020 – the average value of expectations is of 8.4%, the evolution, in real terms of GDP in 2020 – the average value of expectations is -4.4%; the unemployment rate at the end of 2020 – the average value of expectations is of 7.3% “, it is specified in the release.

At the same time, CFA Romania analysts estimate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months and the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is of 4.9608, according to Agerpres.
Moreover, over 74% of the participants in the CFA Romania survey consider the real estate prices in the big cities to be overvalued.

On the other hand, in June 2020, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association decreased compared to the previous month by 1.9 points to the value of 34.1 points. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator decreased by 16.8 points.