The National Strategy and Forecast Commission has revised downwards to 7.4%, from 8%, the inflation estimate for the end of this year, on the background of a wider than expected reduction in the international quotations for oil and energy goods.
“The wider reduction of international quotations for oil as well as for energy goods than previously anticipated imposed a downward correction, visible in particular for inflation from the end of 2023. Thus, the estimate of the increase in consumer prices in December 2023 compared to December 2022 downshifted by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.0% to 7.4% (the change in the annual average is insignificant, by 0.1 percentage points). In perspective, the forecasts are maintained, with the exception of 2024 where the statistical influences from the resulting corrections for the current year,” it is stated in the Medium-term Forecast 2023-2026, spring version.
The current account deficit was estimated to be corrected in the current year by 0.4 percentage points, mainly as a result of the reduction of the deficit in the commercial balance of goods, as well as the increase of the surplus for the balance of services.
The spring scenario keeps unchanged the estimates from the autumn 2022 and winter 2023 versions on the evolution of the gross domestic product, making downward adjustments in terms of inflation for the current year and at the level of the following year, according to Agerpres.
According to CNSP, the economic advance foreseen for 2023, of 2.8%, is considered to be a prudent one, on the background of still high inflation, but with favorable premises determined by a good behavior of services, which could subsequently lead to the improvement estimates.
On the other hand, industrial activity will be reduced under the impact of still high electricity and gas prices, with energy-intensive sectors recording activity contractions this year as well.
In the medium term, the annual rate of growth of the gross domestic product is estimated at 4.8% in the interval 2024-2026, with a peak in 2025 of 5%.