The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association fell by 13.5 points in November, to 31.4 points, amid extremely high political uncertainty, this being the lowest level recorded since July 2020.
According to CFA Romania data, this situation was caused by the strong decrease in both of its components. Thus, the expectations component fell by 12.1 points, to 23.3 points, the lowest since January 2019. At the same time, the current conditions component fell by 16.4 points, to 47.8 points.
“Amid extremely high political uncertainty and the sharp increase in investors’ risk aversion, the confidence indicator has fallen to levels reached only during the Corona pandemic,” explained Adrian Codîrlaşu, president of the CFA Romania Association, quoted in a press release quoted by Agerpres.
According to the monthly survey conducted by CFA Romania, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (December 2025) increased compared to the previous year and stood at an average value of 5%. At the same time, 59% of analysts anticipate an increase in the inflation rate in the next 12 months, and 27% a stagnation.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 77% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, and the rest a stagnation. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0310 lei for one euro, while, for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0831 lei for one euro.
For 2025, CFA Romania analysts anticipate economic growth at an average value of 1.3%, down from 1.6% at the end of this year. The state budget deficit forecast for next year increased to the average value of the expectations of 7.2% of GDP, down from a forecast level of 7.8% at the end of 2024, and public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 58% in the next 12 months.
Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 50% of participants anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months, while 32% anticipate a decrease. Also, 68% of the participants consider that the current prices are overvalued, and 27% that they are correctly valued.
The participants in the survey were asked what are the main risks to which the Romanian economy is subject in the coming year. According to the answers, in the top 5 risks for the coming year, three are economic, and two are not from the economic sphere.
Thus, the main risk for the coming year is represented by changes in fiscal policy, followed by the risk of the Romanian economy entering recession. In third place is a non-economic risk – the risk of misinformation. The next two are the sustainability of public debt and the risk of armed conflicts between states.
The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association, for over 13 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization wants to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year time horizon. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month and the participants are members of the CFA Association Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator takes values between 0 (lack of confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding current conditions – related to the business environment and the labor market; expectations for a one-year time horizon for – the business environment, the labor market, the evolution of personal income at the economy level and the evolution of personal wealth at the economy level.