The European Commission has announced that nine EU countries will suffer this winter if Russia completely cuts off the gas supply, according to the results of stress tests that member states have undergone, informs EFE news agency.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Hungary and Croatia will be the most affected countries, while others, such as Spain and Portugal, which imports gas from Norway and North Africa, will not suffer. The EU’s Government reported that, due to energy isolation of the Iberian Peninsula, Spain and Portugal will not be able to help other countries in case of disruption of supply from Russia, according to Agerpres.
EC examined how Member States will stand when gas supply disruptions occur, using four different scenarios, from a best-case to a worst-case one: a one month interruption, with solidarity between countries, a month interruption without solidarity, as happened in 2009, and similarly in the case of a six months interruption.
“A prolonged interruption will have a substantial impact in the EU, Member States in the East and the ones in Energy Community being most affected”, said EC experts, who calculated losses between 5 and 9 billion cubic meters of gas.
In the worst case scenario, an interruption of half a year without aid between Member States, will affect Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, Estonia and Finland the harder, and, to a lesser extent, Hungary and Poland. EC states that only Estonia’s situation could be so serious as to affect the provision of gas to the population, but believes that it will not come to this, thanks to the solidarity between Member States.
Cases such as that of Finland, which depends 100% on gas imports from Russia, are also serious, but this country, for example, has the possibility to change to another source, such as biomass, which could reduce the impact. “We are in a better situation than in 2009. We have filled storages to 90%”, assured in a press conference, Commissioner for Energy, Gunther Oettinger.
He also referred to the situation in Ukraine, the main transit country for Russian gas to the EU, and gave assurances that currently has stored 17 billion cubic meters of gas, of a capacity of 31 billion cubic meters due to reverse flow from Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. “We are vulnerable, but today we have a more detailed analysis than ever. Things are much clearer from five years ago and, therefore, we can react more quickly”, added Oettinger.
He believes that the results presented Thursday by the EC must show to Russian partners that “it makes no sense to use gas as a political instrument.” The Commissioner expressed confidence that Russia and Ukraine could reach a solution to the gas dispute at the meeting settled for next week in Brussels, in which EU participates as a mediator.