Erste Group Bank estimates that Romania will record an economic growth of 4.2% this year and of 4.5% in 2022, but the speed and scale of the vaccination process remain the most important factors for the economic recovery of the region in which the banking group operates.

Erste Group Bank, listed on the stock exchange, maintains its positive outlook for 2021 and points out that the economic recovery in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region in which it operates depends on a high vaccination rate, another key factor for this being efficient use of grants from the European Union Recovery Fund, given that governments are encouraged to target ambitious and quality plans.

In this context, Erste estimates GDP growth rates in CEE in 2021 to be around +3% to +5%. Also, according to Erste analysts, industrial production and GDP growth would return to normal in the second half of the year.

“Two directions will stimulate the recovery of the economy. One involves vaccination, thus making it possible to return to normal. The second consists of capital injections from the EU Recovery Fund, worth 750 billion euros. This funding will catalyze great economic potential. All countries in our region should see an economic recovery in 2021. This growth is especially visible in the second half of the year, and we expect strong economic growth in 2022-2023 as well, given that the use of EU funds provides an additional impetus,” said Bernd Spalt, CEO of Erste Group.

The speed and scale of the vaccination process remain the most important factors for the economic recovery of the region. Erste Group expects the majority of the population eligible for immunization to be vaccinated by the end of the second quarter of this year, according to Agerpres.

An important role in the recovery of the region is attributed by Bernd Spalt and the EU Recovery Fund. The deadline by which Member States can send implementation plans to the European Commission is 30 April.