OPEC says growth in global oil demand will steadily lessen from an annual average of 1.3 million barrels a day between 2016 and 2020, to 300,000 barrels a day by 2035-2040. But it says fossil fuels will remain the main energy source decades from now, according to AP.
The organization’s annual World Oil Outlook published Tuesday says renewables are projected to record the fastest growth but their share of total energy supply is still anticipated to remain below 5.5 percent by 2040.
The report by the 14-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries says that the use of fossil fuels — 81 percent of the global energy mix in 2015 — will decline by 2040. But the cartel says they will still account then for 74 percent of all energy used.
According to OPEC forecasts, world oil demand will reach 111.1 million barrels per day in 2040, compared to 95.4 million barrels per day in 2015, up from last year’s OPEC forecasts that were talking about global demand for oil of 109.4 million barrels per day. Under these circumstances, fossil fuels will be responsible in 2040 for three-quarters (74%) of the global energy mix, despite the rapid growth of renewable sources, which will reach only 5.5% in 2040, according to Agerpres.
However, OPEC underlines that a faster spreading of electric cars could change this scenario.
“In just a few years, electric vehicles have gone from being completely inaccessible, impractical to a valid option for a niche segment of the consumer market,” OPEC warns. According to the cartel, estimates of world oil demand in 2040 could be reduced to 108.60 million barrels per day if electric vehicles are adopted faster than expected in the organization’s baseline scenario.