A new analysis by the European Commission’s energy directorate, seen by EURACTIV, updates existing scenarios for renewables and energy efficiency, taking into account the rapidly falling costs of solar and wind power.
The Commission “non-paper” – EU jargon to mean it’s not official – is an update of the analysis presented in November 2016 when the EU executive tabled its ‘Clean Energy for all Europeans’ package of legislation, which included a headline target for Europe to source 27% of its energy needs from renewables and cut energy consumption 30% by 2030.
It comes as EU legislators started three-way talks this week to rewrite EU directives on renewables and energy efficiency, which are two key elements of the package, according to Euractiv.com.
In December, EU member states backed the proposed 27% target for renewables but the European Parliament later voted in support of a higher target of 35%. Both need to agree an identical text before the new law can be enacted, signalling tense talks ahead.
Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, a Commission spokesperson, confirmed to EURACTIV that the document was indeed finalised on Thursday (1 March), and will be circulated to the European Parliament and Council.
“Our proposals are now with the co-legislators, and to help them take their final positions based on the most recent evidence available, the Commission today has finalised a technical update on the potential impact in terms of emissions reductions on the energy efficiency and renewable energy objectives,” said Itkonen, who is spokesperson for Miguel Arias Cañete, the European Commissioner for Energy and Climate Action.
Updated scenarios
The Commission document contains updated policy scenarios, based on revised assumptions of renewable energy technology costs, including wind and solar.
“Lower technology costs make the achievement of a 27% renewable energy target by 2030 (coupled with 40% GHG emission reductions and 30% energy efficiency) cheaper by €2.9 billion per year in the period 2021-30 and by €6.9 billion per year for the period 2021-2050,” says the updated analysis.
The falling costs are explained by lower investment needs for the same renewable electricity capacity, the paper adds.
“Overall, total investment savings in all power generation amount to €14 billion over the period 2021-2030,” the document says. “Instead of investing €394 billion over the 2021-2030 period, only €380 billion is necessary to reach a similar renewable energy target”.
“This, in turn, translates into renewable energy support costs passed on to final electricity consumers and electricity prices that are lower by respectively 4% and 0.5%,” the document adds.