The Republic of Moldova is banking on Romania’s power generation capacities to ensure uninterrupted electricity supply on the right bank of the Dniester, explains the Energy Ministry in Chisinau. Although the guaranteed import capacity from the European grid for Moldova is only 315 MW, the authorities say that solutions have been identified that could increase this capacity to over 400 MW.

From 1 January 2025, Moldova may face difficulties in meeting its electricity needs. Gazprom is expected to stop the transit of gas through Ukraine, which will drastically reduce the capacity of the Moldovan Thermoelectric Power Plant (MGRES) on the left bank of the Nistru River to supply electricity to the right bank.

Coal for the Transnistrian region

At present, MGRES has about 400 MW of generation capacity available. Consumption in the Transnistrian region, on the left bank of the Dniester, varies between 120 MW and 180 MW. As of 1 January 2025, “the left bank has announced that it will cover its own consumption by operating 1 power block at MGRES on coal-fired power, at a capacity of about 140 MW, for 50 days, as long as there are coal stocks, and by operating the Dubasari CHE at a variable capacity,” the Moldovan Energy Ministry said.

In order to guarantee uninterrupted electricity supply on the right bank of the Dniester, including in the capital Chisinau, it will be necessary to cover a consumption load “which in winter reaches up to 850 MW at peak hours”. All domestic generation sources will be used – the thermoelectric power plants of Termoelectrica and CET Nord, which will cover the consumption base of about 200 MW. “At the CETs we still have reserves to increase production capacity,” the energy ministry added.

200 MW from Nuclearelectrica and OMV Petrom

Over 400 MW to come from Romania. “Another 100 MW have already been contracted by Energocom from the Cernavodă nuclear power plant in Romania at a capped price. Another 100 MW are to be contracted from OMV Petrom’s Brazi thermoelectric power plant,” the officials from Chisinau said.

The Costești-Stânca hydroelectric power plant, currently unused, can cover up to 10 MW in the band. “We have already made the necessary approaches to our friends in Romania so that the power plant can operate continuously for the Moldovan energy system,” reads the Energy Ministry’s message.

OPCOM, renewables and the economy

Capacities of up to 200 MW would be purchased on the Romanian power exchange OPCOM. These volumes would cover consumption peaks, when “electricity prices on the exchange are higher and very volatile, being dependent on weather conditions as well as market demand”.

In this context, “it is very necessary to reduce electricity consumption, especially during peak hours – in the morning between 7am and 11am and in the evening between 6pm and 6pm and 6pm in the evening”, insists the Energy Ministry in Chisinau. Efforts will be needed to reduce peak consumption by about 60 MW “so that we don’t have a shortage of electricity, so that there are no disconnections of electricity, so that we reduce the pressure on the electricity grids and on prices”.

In winter, renewable energy sources can deliver varying amounts of energy from 50 MW sometimes up to 150 MW at certain times of the day, depending on weather conditions, say officials in Chisinau. According to them, the installed capacity of all renewable energy sources stood at 521 MW at the beginning of October and is expected to exceed 600 MW on 1 January.

Increased import capacity

The volumes of additional electricity to be imported from Romania are relatively small – between 5% and 8% of Romania’s consumption last month.

Beyond the higher costs that Moldova will have to pay from 1 January, the main problem is the import capacity (NTC) in ENTSO-E. Until now, the country had a guaranteed import capacity of 315 MW. According to the Ministry of Energy, a mechanism has been identified to increase the NTC capacity: “We will be able to utilise the unreserved capacity abroad between ENTSO-E and the Moldova-Ukraine joint regulating block”.

In addition, 110 kV power lines interconnecting with Romania, with a transmission capacity of more than 100 MW, would be used.

Even small additional electricity exports to prevent critical situations in the Republic of Moldova are expected to put pressure on the Romanian energy system, at least in terms of prices. The domestic basket will lose 14 per cent of Nuclearelectrica’s production capacity and 23 per cent of OMV Petrom’s, while demand will increase on power exchanges. The rains and strong winds during this period will help, but imports will be the main source to secure the needed electricity at the best prices.