The world oil market will record a slight surplus next year, even if OPEC+ countries extend their production cuts in 2024, Toril Bosoni, head of the industry and oil markets division at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Reuters.

At the moment, however, the oil market is in a deficit and stocks are declining “at a rapid pace”.

“Global oil stocks are at a low level, which means increasing the risk of volatility, if there will be surprises either on the demand side or on the supply side”, explained Toril Bosoni, on the sidelines of a conference held in Oslo.

In September, the price of a barrel of crude oil reached $98, the highest level since 2023, but since then it has fallen to around $82. Fears regarding the evolution of the economy and demand affected prices, despite the support from production cuts decided by OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies) and the conflict in the Middle East. The next meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for November 26, in Vienna, and analysts are carefully following the statements of the main oil producers, according to Agerpres.

Sources who wished to remain anonymous told Reuters that additional production cuts could be considered at the OPEC+ meeting, given the drop in prices. On the ICE Futures exchange, the quotation of the barrel of Brent oil from the North Sea for delivery in January increased by 0.13 dollars on Tuesday, reaching the closing value of 82.45 dollars.

Already, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC+ members have pledged to cut oil production by a total of 5.16 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of daily global demand. The cuts include OPEC+’s 3.66 million bpd and additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

This month, the International Energy Agency upgraded its estimates for oil demand growth, both for 2023 and next year, despite an expected slowdown in activity in almost all major economies.

“Global oil demand continues to exceed expectations,” the Paris-based agency announced in its latest monthly report. However, “the increase in world oil supply is also exceeding expectations, thanks to the fact that the advance of production in the US and Brazil was ahead of forecasts”, adds the IEA.

The International Energy Agency is the main advisory body on energy issues of the 29 most developed countries. The agency was established in response to the first oil shock of 1973-1974, to coordinate the release of oil from reserve stocks.