The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Wednesday of the risk of “the biggest supply crisis” of oil in decades, with a significant share of Russian production disappearing from the market, without perceiving the availability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to compensate it, reports the EFE agency.

In its monthly oil market report, the IEA significantly downgraded its forecast for global demand this year as a result of escalating barrel prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will slow economic growth.

Specifically, it reduced consumption projections by 1.3 million barrels per day over the next three quarters, compared to last month’s estimates, which is 950,000 barrels per day less, on average, in 2022, according to Agerpres.

This means that global demand will remain at 99.7 million barrels per day, 2.1 million barrels more than in 2021.

But beyond those figures calculated at a time of great uncertainty about the evolution and implications of war and high volatility, the agency’s main message – which brings together developed countries at the forefront of Moscow’s sanctions – is that there is a real danger of a lack of oil.

The study’s authors say that three of the eight million barrels a day exported by Russia as a result of sanctions will disappear from the market in April, and that many traditional buyers avoid buying Russian oil.

But things may not stop there, and so it does not rule out that the public reaction to condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine will raise this figure even further, given the observed behavior that has already caused Russian oil sales to post record declines.

At the same time, at its March 2 meeting, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its associates said there was no shortage of supply and planned to launch an additional 400,000 barrels a day into the market.