A study conducted by TDP Partners shows that the market for renewable energy storage batteries will undergo significant transformations by 2030 and investments in batteries will have to be made with a more nuanced vision, said Marian Dobrilă, CEO of the firm and president of the Pro-Impact Coalition, at the “Energy Day” conference organised by Energynomics within the Green Energy Expo & Romenvirotec 2025.
“We have made a graph up to 2030 to predict the evolution of the energy storage battery market, and we have started from some fundamental principles. Firstly, it is essential to realise that all those who will install batteries will take into account the financial aspect and will want to recoup the money invested in these technologies. There will be no installation of batteries just for the sake of the grid or out of pure belief in renewable energy. In fact, all of our clients are investors with hundreds of millions of euros in their portfolios and we are familiar with the way they think. It’s also important to emphasise that each investor’s industry plays a significant role. However, no matter what sector they are involved in, they will not make an investment without clearly analysing it and without being convinced that they will get a return in line with their expectations,” said Dobrilă.
One of the main issues for investors to consider is the decline in industrial consumption, which once accounted for a large share of energy demand. Today, more and more “self-consumers” are helping to erode the traditional market. This phenomenon is deepening as electrification increases the demand for energy from sources such as electric cars and electric pumps. Mr Dobrilă said that, in the long term, investment in batteries will have to take account of price developments and changes in market regulation.
“For example, a lot of people are afraid of the situation where they will have batteries but there won’t be room in the market because there will be too many batteries. And we’ve been looking at the mechanisms of how this has been regulated in more advanced economies. For example, in other more advanced economies, such as the UK, older batteries have started to be used less as the price differentials between peak and off-peak hours have narrowed considerably. When this difference narrows, the use of batteries becomes less profitable,” he added.
Astfel, din toți acești GW de baterii care practic sunt excedentari va avea loc o scădere a ofertei în piață vor dispărea și în fiecare zi nu vor mai fi disponibili toți, ci doar jumătate sau o treime. Un alt factor cheie pentru investitori este psihologia pieței. Investitorii nu vor activa bateriile decât atunci când condițiile financiare le permit să își amortizeze investițiile. De asemenea, Dobrilă consideră că, indiferent de scenariile pesimiste, există posibilitatea ca investițiile în baterii să se amortizeze în 10-12 ani, chiar și în condițiile unor investiții mari în tehnologie.
“In Romania, investors have return expectations of at least 10-11% IRR, but in reality they come with expectations of 20%, which makes any project bankable only if there is a significant potential for gain. Whilst these expectations may seem high, it is important to realise that investors will continue to make these investments even if returns do not reach the anticipated level.”
Dobrilă said that clear regulation and a flexible system are needed to support the development of storage batteries in Romania, without creating a surplus that destabilises the market.
The conference „Energy Day at Green Energy Expo & Romenvirotec” was organized by Energynomics, with the support of our partners Elektra Renewable Support, LONGi, SolaX Power and with the involvement of HENRO, COGEN România, CIGRE România and FEL România.