Mihai Melintei, Energy Analytical Studies

In recent years, the Republic of Moldova, with the support of the European Commission, has agreed on a comprehensive strategy aimed at strengthening the country’s energy independence and resilience. The strategy pursues two major objectives: decoupling from Russian gas supplies and full integration into the EU energy market. These endeavours reflect Moldova’s commitment to energy security, reduction of external vulnerabilities and diversification of energy supply sources.

In this context of transformation of energy policies and according to the draft law on the amendment of Law No 108/2016 on natural gas, Moldovagaz risks losing its status as a designated supplier for the mandatory delivery of natural gas to the Transnistrian region. This change comes at a time of reassessment of energy relations and the structure of gas suppliers, with the Chisinau authorities seeking to take firmer control over energy distribution throughout the national territory, including the Transnistrian region.

At the end of March 2025, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Energy, Constantin Borosan, publicly presented several working hypotheses on the modification of the legal framework for the supply of natural gas. The Moldovan Parliament is currently debating amendments to the Gas Law and consultations with experts are in full swing. Consideration of the draft law is expected in the next period. If these amendments are adopted, Moldovagaz would cease to be the public service supplier for the Transnistrian region, giving the government the possibility to appoint a new supplier. This change could strengthen Chisinau’s control over gas deliveries to the left bank of the Dniester and allow for strategic management of energy resources.

To understand the potential impact of these measures, it is important to analyse the ownership structure of Moldovagaz. Gazprom, the state-owned energy company of the Russian Federation, owns 50 per cent of Moldovagaz shares, while 35.33 per cent belong to the Moldovan government and 13.44 per cent are owned by the Transnistrian Property Management Committee. The remaining 1.23% is owned by minority shareholders. This configuration emphasises Russia’s significant influence over Moldovagaz and explains the concerns of the Chisinau authorities about security and autonomy in gas supply.

Gas supplies to the Transnistrian region – between equilibrium and crisis

Since the 1990s, Tiraspol has been unable to influence the choice of the company designated by the Chisinau authorities to deliver gas to the region. However, Tiraspol benefited from Russian gas at preferential prices in exchange for political loyalty to Moscow. In this way, the Tiraspol regime has maintained a form of “energy subjectivity” deeply dependent on Russian gas. As long as Russian gas was delivered to the Transnistrian region through Ukraine’s gas transport system, the situation was relatively stable:

• Chisinau is sourcing its gas from the European market through purchases made by the state company Energocom for the needs of the right bank of the Dniester;
• Gazprom supplied Moldovagaz with 5.7 million m3/day of gas, which was transferred to Tiraspoltransgaz for electricity production at the Cuciurgan Thermoelectric Power Plant (MGRES) for consumers on both banks of the Dniester.

On 1 January 2025, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine was halted and Gazprom suspended supplies to Moldova. For Chisinau, already orientated towards alternative sources from 2022, the impact was small. But for Tiraspol, which consumes about 2bn m³ of gas annually and had no alternative infrastructure, the halt in deliveries created a severe humanitarian crisis. This moment marked a significant paradigm shift – Russia’s influence in the Transnistrian region turned out to be far from Moscow’s first priority in the context of energy antagonism, at least pro tempore.

Gas supplies to the Transnistrian region were resumed on 1 February 2025 under temporary solutions:

• 1-10 February: Energocom, using a €20 million EU grant, purchased gas from Romania and Bulgaria (about 26.5 million m³);
• 11-13 February: Moldovagaz bought gas for Tiraspoltransgaz from the Romanian Commodity Exchange’s Chisinau branch (about 8.3 million m3);
• 14 February: gas in the Transnistrian region started to be supplied by MET Gas and Energy Marketing (part of MET Group), purchased on European exchanges with Russian funds;
• MET deliveries were due to last until 28 February but were extended until the end of March. The status of the April deliveries is uncertain.

As well as restarting supplies, the authorities in Chisinau have introduced a key condition: limiting the daily volume of gas to around 3 million m³ – enough for household consumption and power generation, but not enough for industry in the region.  This policy of rationalising gas supplies complements the draft law currently under discussion, which will allow the Moldovan government to unilaterally designate another gas supplier for the Transnistrian region.

Tiraspol has expressed concern about the possible replacement of the gas supply company amid changes to gas supply routes. Tiraspol’s chief negotiator Vitalii Ignatiev said that the Chisinau authorities intend to introduce new conditions on gas supplies. Tiraspol has asked for clarification on a draft law that would allow the government to appoint another supplier.

Gas market liberalisation – a step towards transparency and institutional control

During 2025, major changes may occur in the structure of the gas market in the Republic of Moldova. Replacing Moldovagaz with a new operator could be a strategic step towards liberalisation and transparency of the energy sector, strengthening the country’s energy autonomy and reducing Gazprom’s influence. At present, gas supplies to the Transnistrian region are carried out under an emergency mechanism, managed by the Commission for Exceptional Situations, but the prospect of institutionalising this mechanism in a sustainable regulatory framework is emerging.

Given the absence of licensed transmission and distribution operators in the Transnistrian region, Chisinau will continue to resort to an exceptional but regulated mechanism. Thus, ANRE (National Agency for Energy Regulation) will have the power to temporarily appoint a licensed supplier to ensure the supply to consumers on the left bank of the Dniester. This appointment will be made through a competition, according to a transparent regulation approved by ANRE.

By introducing Article 851 into the Gas Law, a clear legal basis is created which allows the transmission system operator (licensed in the Republic of Moldova) to conclude contracts for the provision of transmission services with the entity designated to deliver gas to regions without licensed operators – i.e. the Transnistrian region. The new supply entity will have the right to participate actively in the gas market, including through trading platforms, which allows for greater flexibility and efficiency in gas procurement. This change is essential for the transition from a centralised and political model of gas supply to an economic and competitive one, specific to integrated European economies.

Another key provision introduced in the legislative package is the clear regulation of the obligation to build up gas stocks. Under the proposed amendments, the entity which will supply gas to the region in which the unlicensed system operators operate will be obliged to gradually build up and maintain gas stocks to ensure that at least 15% of the average annual gas consumption is covered. This measure strengthens energy resilience, ensuring the ability to react quickly to possible supply disruptions or unpredictable geopolitical developments.

Conclusion

Recent transformations in Moldova’s energy sector point to a paradigm shift with significant implications both domestically and regionally. The strategy being promoted with the support of the European Commission – centred on reducing dependence on Russian gas and integration into the European energy market – is taking clear shape through legislative measures, institutional control mechanisms and new gas supply solutions.

The replacement of Moldovagaz as a supplier with a public service obligation in the Transnistrian region is not just a technical decision, but a political and economic statement on the reconfiguration of relations between Chisinau, Tiraspol and Moscow. By transferring control over gas supplies, Chisinau gains a tool of strategic influence over the Transnistrian region, which for decades has been maintained in a state of energy autonomy dependent on Russia. However, we can only recognise this control in terms of natural gas supplies.

At the same time, the implementation of a transparent legal framework for the appointment of suppliers, the mandatory constitution of stocks and participation on European trading platforms strengthens the competitive character of the gas sector in the Republic of Moldova. This is essential for reducing vulnerabilities and increasing economic efficiency.

In geopolitical terms, the energy relationship between Chisinau and Tiraspol for the supply of gas opens new opportunities for recalibrating the political dialogue on both banks of the Dniester.