The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has revised inflation forecast for the end of 2025 upwards to 3.8%, from 3.5% previously, and anticipates that it will reach 3.1% at the end of 2026, according to data presented on Monday by NBR Governor Mugur Isărescu.
“According to the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic projection, the annual inflation rate will continue to fluctuate in the first part of this year. The indicator will subsequently decrease and return to within the target range in the first quarter of 2026, remaining relatively stable in its upper half throughout next year. In structure, the CPI trajectory is configured by the continuous reduction of core inflation, but in a gradual manner, while the set of exogenous components of the basket will print the volatile profile in the first part of the interval, mainly as a result of some base effects. Under these conditions, the annual CPI inflation rate will reach 3.8% in December 2025, with a value of 3.1% anticipated for December 2026. Compared to the trajectory published in the November 2024 Inflation Report, CPI inflation is at higher values until the end of the current year (more visible in the first quarters of the year), respectively lower in 2026,” the NBR February 2025 Inflation Report states, according to Agerpres.
According to the cited source, the revision for December 2025 is +0.3 percentage points, mainly determined by price increases at the beginning of the year (tobacco products, services with administered prices), but also by a more pronounced persistent dynamics of core inflation, partially offset by slightly more optimistic prospects in the LFO segment.
“In contrast, at the horizon of the previous projection (quarter III 2026), the annual dynamics of the CPI is lower by 0.1 percentage points, especially as a result of the downward revision of core inflation. The balance of risks is assessed to remain tilted towards upward deviations from the trajectory described in the baseline scenario. In the current context, the risk of an intensification of trade protectionism has increased. Domestically, the future configuration of the electricity and natural gas price capping scheme raises a number of question marks,” the report also states.