Bogdan Tudorache

Romania could suffer an economic decline of 6% this year.

According to a preliminary Eurostat estimate, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Eurozone decreased by 3.6% in the first three months of this year compared to the same period in 2019 – the largest decrease in history. By comparison, in the first quarter (Q1) of 2009, at the height of the Great Depression, euro area GDP fell by only 3.1% compared to Q1 2008. Country-level GDP figures confirm that the economic shock has widened in the whole region, without any economy being able to avoid it: in Italy a decrease of 4.7%, France of 5.8%, Spain of 5.2%, these being also the worst affected countries, but also those in Belgium (-3.9%) or Austria (-2.5%) proved to be dramatic, according to Allianz Research and Euler Hermes.

“If the data from Q1 give emotions, what awaits us in Q2 is even more severe. We expect a double-digit decrease in GDP between April and June, around -17% compared to the same period in 2019,” say the analysts.

And for Romania, analysts predict double-digit declines in the affected segments. “We expect a 5.5-6% reduction in GDP in the conditions of a partial recovery in the last two quarters and a return to the upward slope in 2021, around + 6%,” says Mihai Chipirliu, CFA – Head of Risk Analysis Euler Hermes Romania.