Romanian Prognosis Commission revised the projection of GDP growth in 2018 to 6.1%

The National Prognosis Commission in Romania (CNP) revised the projection for GDP growth this year its Winter medium-term forecast for the medium term 2017-2021, after the previous Autumn estimate of an economic growth of 5.5% for 2018. The exchange rate is also forecast to increase this year to the level of 4.59 lei for a euro, compared to the level of 4.55 lei for a euro, in the Autumn forecast.

For the next three years, the CNP maintained its GDP forecasts at 5.7% in 2019 and 2020, respectively, to 5% in 2021. The current Gross Domestic Product value will rise to 924.2 billion lei this year, 995.4 billion lei in 2019, 1.072 billion lei in 2020 and 1.148 billion lei in 2021.

Final consumption is expected to increase by 6.3% this year, also projected to rise from 5.8% in Autumn, based on a 6.6% increase in household consumption. Over the next three years, consumption growth will slow to 5.6% in 2019, 5.4% in 2020 and 4.9% in 2021.

On the other hand, gross fixed capital formation (investment) is set to reach 7.9% this year, 8.4% in 2019, 8.6% in 2020 and 7.4% in 2021.

The European Commission expects for 2018 an advance of the Romanian economy of up to 4.4%, consistent with that of the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund.

The World Bank also estimates a GDP growth of 4.5% in 2018, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted GDP would growth by 4.2%.