The representatives of Saxo Bank have considered three possible scenarios on the stock markets, as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, so that in the best case a global technical recession can be reached, and in the most pessimistic scenario the global GDP enters a an unprecedented decline that has not occurred since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

“The best scenario – a delayed V-shape. It still involves a global technical recession and significant additional disruption in the second and third quarters, but it becomes clear in this period that quarantine efforts slow enough the evolution of the epidemic, so this the key point that could trigger a V-scenario is the announcement of a successful vaccine that could be fully in production in a few months – although we have no ability to evaluate the chances for this evolution,” say representatives of Saxo Bank, in an analysis released on Friday, quoted by Agerpres.

According to it, the second scenario provides for a U-shaped recovery.

“The basic case is that in which officially imposed quarantine and self-quarantine in the form of decisions not to go on vacation or to reduce public activity generally means a sharp recession, unlike any other event since the Great Recession,” according to the analysis.

At the same time, the third scenario is also the most pessimistic and provides for an L-shaped recovery.

“We do not want to get there, but the worst case scenario is one in which global GDP goes into an unprecedented decline, which has not happened since the Great Depression of the 1930s, because the global spread of coronavirus makes it difficult to lift quarantine rules because fears of re-infection continue due to the spread of the virus worldwide, and this means that the resumption of regular business activity generates new fears related to the epidemic,” say representatives of Saxo Bank.