The data are indisputable: The world will need between 25% and 35% more energy in a little over two decades, primarily due to increased global population and affluence, especially in the non-OECD countries. The increased demand will come in spite of increased efficiency (that is, increased energy intensity per dollar of GDP).

Shifts to non-fossil based renewables and other sustainable forms of energy are accelerating, but considering price structure, required capital investments and infrastructure adaptation, fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas) will continue to grow in absolute terms. And this is borne out in all of the scenarios developed by various global agencies and energy companies, Ramanan Krishnamoorti, Chief Energy Officer, University of Houston, writes for Forbes. The energy industry broadly is a technology industry. Reductions in cost of solar and wind derived energy have advanced in the last decade because of the rapid adoption of technological innovations. The fossil fuel industry, and especially oil and gas, are strongly reliant on technology. The shale phenomenon in the Permian, the Bakken, the Marcellus, the Eagle Ford and elsewhere in the United States is clear evidence of that, allowing those sources to maintain market share. But what the various scenarios don’t capture are the ways in which artificial int
elligence and data science have and will continue to transform the energy industry.

Also left unsaid is how we will prepare our future workforce – the schoolchildren of today and tomorrow – to use and advance those tools. Data-driven technological innovations are going to require a different approach and necessitate a re-think on how we develop our workforce.

Much of the increased supply of oil and gas in the United States over the last decade, and a significant cause of the overall lowering of the global price of oil, is due to the increased production from unconventional shales in the U.S. These have been largely accomplished by the adoption of key technologies that have leveraged such paradigm shifters as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The average cost to lift oil in the U.S. has dropped over 30%.

This focus on technology will grow in the coming decade. First has been the decline in new discoveries for oil over the last decade (Rystad Energy, Figure 2). The last time the reserve replacement ratio (ratio of new reserves to production) reached 100% was 2006. Therefore, in order to achieve the expected energy production based on demand, which is remarkably similar no matter what particular outlook scenario you consider (Figure 1), the supply will have to come from much more complicated reservoirs, including tight oil and oil sands, and from remote and harsh locations, such as deepwater.

Technology and data science-derived technologies are likely to shape that future.