The weighted average price of natural gas from domestic production traded on the Romanian Commodities Exchange (RCE) increased in the second quarter of 2018 by 12.6% compared to the second quarter of 2017, according to the quarterly Bulletin “Natural Gas Price” volume IV, released by the Intelligent Energy Association, which predicts a 15.6% increase in price in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the fourth quarter of 2017.
On the wholesale market, the maximum price of gas traded in June 2018, delivered in December 2018, is 30% higher than the maximum price traded in the summer months with gas delivery in the winter of 2017/2018, which shows that suppliers expect a significant increase in gas prices in the Winter months. Considering the obligation imposed by ANRE to store natural gas, the increase in the prices of petroleum products and implicitly the price of imported gas, the Romanian practice to use imported gas as gas balancing gas during the cold season will bring significant price increases in the cold season 2018/2019, compared to the cold season 2017/2018. There is a tendency of increasing gap between the minimum / maximum price of gas traded on RCE.
Transactions on the retail market are scarce, the Intelligent Energy Association finds, while the average prices of transactions on the retail market between October 2017 and June 2018 have been steadily rising.
On the residential market, natural gas price trends for both domestic gas and imported gas that will be needed in the cold season, but also using storage gas will increase the price of natural gas for population in the cold season by about 10%, based on data from RCE. Based on the same transactions carried out on RCE, it is clear that the advance of gas prices for the population will be higher in the Northern part of the country, where the price may increase by about 13%.
Similar advances on foreign markets
Analyzing the global trends in natural gas prices, we also record increases. The CEGH Hub in Vienna, the nearest gas exchange in Europe to Romania, shows an increase in the price of natural gas in Q4-18, compared to Q4-17, according to futures contracts, by about 10%. The experience of the past years allows the use of this price as a benchmark for the price of gas sold in Central and Eastern Europe by the Russian Federation.
Analyzing the US gas price trend in Q4-18 futures prices compared to the average price set in Q4-17, one can see a significant gas price increase trend, which some analyzes forecast at 8%; there are also analysts who expect a 40% increase in the coming Winter.