The EU is not on track to meet its Paris Agreement obligations on emissions and limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, according to Energypost.eu.

CAN Europe and the European Environmental Bureau (EEB) present their Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario, designed to do just that. It’s been created through the careful analysis of contributions from more than 150 stakeholders including NGOs, scientists, industry and grid operators.

The main two drivers are a rapid reduction in emissions by cutting energy demand (mainly from buildings) while scaling up renewable energy capacity (mainly solar and wind). The target is 65% emissions reductions by 2030 and net-zero by 2040, ten years in advance of the EU’s mainstream view. Almost all coal is phased out by 2030, followed by fossil gas in 2035 and oil by 2040. According to the PAC scenario, such ambitious targets are credible because they depend almost exclusively on mature transition technologies. The article highlights the varying roles played by a wide range of solutions, including the circular economy, modernising processes and products, deep renovation of buildings, behaviour change, transport electrification, carbon prices, solar, wind, hydrogen, heat pumps, geothermal, hydropower, and bioenergy. The authors remind us of some of the material benefits, like how energy efficiencies from transport electrification (consumption is cut in half by 2040) will allow us to travel more, not less. With hundreds of billions now earmarked to bring Europe out of the pandemic recession, the PAC scenario should also be taken as investment guidance for the European Green Deal, say the authors.