OPEC and its allies are seeking to pump less for longer in a quest for higher prices. The world’s biggest independent oil trader says their efforts could be in vain.

Demand isn’t expanding as much as expected, and U.S. shale output is growing faster than forecast, according to Vitol Group. That’s increasing the burden on the world’s biggest producers, who need to stick to their pledges to cut supply just to keep prices from falling, said Kho Hui Meng, the head of the company’s Asian arm.

Oil has given up all its gains since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers signed a deal late last year to limit supply for six months from January. Prices have been hit by surging output in the U.S., which is not part of the agreement. Any recovery in crude will depend on sustained usage by nations such as China, India and the U.S. as much as OPEC’s efforts to control supply, according to Bloomberg.

“What we need is real demand growth, faster demand growth,” Kho, the president of Vitol Asia Pte., said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur. “Growth is there, but not fast enough.”

While consumption was forecast to expand this year by about 1.3 million barrels a day, growth has been limited to about 800,000 barrels a day so far in 2017, he said, adding that U.S. output had grown 400,000-500,000 barrels a day more than expected. “If demand goes back to where it should, where it’s forecast, then it’ll help, but my gut feel tells me it is still a bit long,” he said.

The International Energy Agency has trimmed its forecasts for global oil demand growth this year by about 100,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million a day as a result of weaker consumption in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries and an abrupt slowdown in economic activity in India and Russia, according to a report last month. The Paris-based IEA cut its estimate for India’s 2017 oil-demand growth by 11 percent.

There’s also concern that consumption may slow in China, the world’s second-biggest oil user. Independent refiners, which account for about a third of the nation’s capacity, have received lower crude import quotas compared with a year earlier, prompting speculation their purchases could slow.

“The oil market is looking for growth but there’s no growth,” Vitol’s Kho said, adding that the refiners may only get approval for the same volume of imports as last year. And while U.S. gasoline consumption is expected to hit its seasonal summer peak soon, demand growth “is not there yet,” he said.